The purpose of this project is to construct a model to attempt to forecast the interim earnings of Harley Davidson.

1. SYNOPSIS The purpose of this project is to construct a descriptor to sample on to forecast the retardation shekels of Harley Davidson. Harley Davidson, Inc. manufactures agiotage wheels, recreational vehicles, specialize commercial vehicles and parts and accessories. The Companys Motorcycle department manufactures and markets heavyweight touring and customs motorcycles and a broad range of related results including riding app bel, motorcycle accessories and replacement parts. My purpose is to construct a ideal using six familys worth of historical data and try to predict the recompense for the following stratum. I volition usage the interim meshing for the years 1989-1994, and divide them into 24 fitting quarters. The model uses a quantative forecasting method called the multiplicative sequence Series Model. It is based on the assumption that on that point argon four factors that have influenced the time serial number in the past. They are: 1. way 2. Cycle 3. Season 4. temporary These factors will also be influences in the forecast year as well. If I isolate them I will be able to forecast the earnings for 1995. Finally, I will course the accuracy of my forecast in nightclub to decide if the model is capable of giving accurate forecasts. The actual time serial are expressed in this model as the convergency of the four components: Yt = T*C*S*I. 3. RESULTS During the years of 1989 - 1994, Harley Davidson, Inc. analyse an overall increase in interim earnings. The peak of their earnings occurred in the second quarter of 1994 with a .63; while the get through earnings occurred during the fourth quarter of 1991 with only a .09. 3.1 CMA map 2 shows the Center Moving Average and Harley Davidsons actual interim earnings. The CMAV is the product of two factors, Cycle and Trend. It represents the values of interim earnings if Trend and... If you want to get a full essay, order it on o ur website: BestEssayCheap.com

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